Embracing the Wabi-Sabi of Finance

 In today's data-driven world, there's an obsession with precision. From the kitchen of a 5-star restaurant to the algorithms of a robo-adviser, perfection is often touted as the end-all and be-all. But what if we told you that in the realm of portfolio building, like a chef's signature dish, perfection can sometimes be... well, dull?

The Bland Taste of Perfection: Imagine walking into a renowned restaurant, excited to taste the magic of its acclaimed chef. You take a bite and think, "It's perfect." But is your heart racing? Is your soul singing? More often than not, perfection is predictable. It's describable. And in many domains, it's easily replicable. A perfect dish can be recreated by any trained chef, but a memorable dish? That's the work of a maestro.

Portfolio Building: Beyond the Recipe: Much like in the culinary world, the realm of finance has its set recipes. Robo-advisors, with their algorithms and pre-set models, will serve you the 'perfect' portfolio on a silver platter. But does it resonate with you? Does it capture the essence of your dreams, goals, and risk appetite?

Perfection, as it turns out, removes the human element. It's this very aspect that breathes life, passion, and uniqueness into anything – be it a dish or a portfolio.

Why A Perfect Portfolio Isn't Always the Best Recipe: Drawing from the Japanese aesthetic of Wabi-Sabi, which finds beauty in imperfection and transience, we believe in crafting portfolios that mirror the ebbs and flows of life. Instead of a 'one-size-fits-all' model, we lean into the intricacies, the nuances, and the individual stories of each client.

 

 

At Caelian Capital, we're not just portfolio managers; we're craftsmen of finance. We believe in the beauty of imperfections, the stories they tell, and the uniqueness they bring. We don't just follow the market; we listen to you. Your goals, your dreams, your worries, and your milestones shape your portfolio.

While robo-advisors are busy drawing within the lines, we're sketching outside the box, creating a financial masterpiece that's as unique as you are.

In a world racing towards algorithmic perfection, we invite you to celebrate the human touch, the art of imperfection, and the beauty of a truly personalized portfolio. Because, just as the best meals are crafted from the heart, at Caelian Capital, we believe your portfolio should be too.

What's the difference between TWR & MWR?

 MWR and TWR are two different methods of calculating the portfolio's performance over a specific period. They stand for Money-Weighted Return (MWR) and Time-Weighted Return (TWR).

1. Money-Weighted Return (MWR):
MWR takes into account the timing and amount of cash flows in and out of the portfolio. It focuses on the overall return experienced by the investor, considering the impact of their individual contributions or withdrawals. MWR is also known as the internal rate of return (IRR) or the dollar-weighted return. It provides a measure of how the investor's specific investment decisions and timing affected the portfolio's performance.

Example of MWR: If an investor adds a substantial amount of money into the portfolio just before a significant market upturn, the MWR will likely be higher due to the positive impact of the well-timed investment.

2. Time-Weighted Return (TWR):
TWR, on the other hand, measures the compound rate of return of the portfolio, independently of the timing and size of cash flows. TWR is based solely on the investment's performance over specific periods, without consideration for any individual contributions or withdrawals made by the investor. This method is often considered more appropriate when evaluating the performance of a portfolio manager since it eliminates the influence of investor behavior.

Example of TWR: If an investor makes a large deposit during a period of market decline, TWR would calculate the portfolio's performance based on market returns, excluding the impact of the investor's cash inflow.

In summary, MWR takes into account the investor's cash flows and is influenced by the timing and size of those cash flows, while TWR solely focuses on the investment's performance and removes the impact of cash flows. The choice between MWR and TWR depends on the purpose of the performance evaluation and the perspective of the analysis (investor-level or portfolio manager-level).

The Intersection of Service-Based Universal Basic Income, Expiry-Driven Economics, and Localized Capitalism

 This dissertation is incomplete, as of 08/01/2023 - I am encouraging and welcoming feedback, please send to InvictusElectricTN@gmail.com

 

I would like to talk about the future of finance and its relation to the concept of universal basic income. 

I would like to discuss my personal vision of universal, basic income as opposed to what is currently out there, meaning what are other people's ideas of universal basic income. 

Let’s start talking about that and a framework for it as far as the future is concerned. 

In a financial aspect, what I want to begin incorporating is a discussion around how people can perform service work for society, for example, crossing guard, cleaning up the local park, picking up litter on the side of the road, or other types of service work that can be traded for a cryptocurrency or central government currency, that perhaps does have an expiration date on it, but these are all complexities that I want to begin discussing.

 

The idea of Universal Basic Income (UBI) has been gaining traction in many circles. Traditionally, UBI involves giving people an unconditional sum of money regularly, irrespective of their employment status, to ensure a basic level of livelihood.

 

This vision is a bit of a hybrid between traditional UBI and a work-based incentive program. Please feel free to argue, dissect, strong-man, prove wrong or right. and otherwise fortify or rip to shreads various aspects of the following written work.

 

Let's break it down:

1. Service Work for Society: Incorporating the idea of service work is an interesting twist. It can be thought of as a "community service as currency" model. This can foster community building, engage people in productive tasks, and potentially reduce the stigma associated with "free money."
2. Cryptocurrency or Central Government Currency: Using cryptocurrency can help with transparency and reduce bureaucratic overhead. This decentralizes the distribution method and potentially allows for a more scalable system. On the other hand, using a central government currency might be more straightforward for most citizens, especially those unfamiliar with digital currencies. Perhaps a hybrid system would need to be implemented.
3. Expiration Date on the Currency: Having an expiration date on the currency is an intriguing concept. It can incentivize people to spend and reinvest into the economy rather than hoarding. However, it might be viewed negatively as it could be perceived as a way to force spending habits or control the way the aid is used.

Challenges and Considerations:

• Verification of Service: Ensuring that people genuinely participate in these community tasks without exploiting the system is a significant concern.
• Value Assignment: How much work equates to a certain amount of currency? Would all tasks have the same value, or would some be deemed more valuable than others?
• Inclusivity: Making sure all members of society, including the elderly, disabled, or those otherwise unable to participate in physical labor, can still benefit.
• Economic Impact: Would this kind of system increase inflation? Would it disrupt traditional job markets?
• Technological Barriers: Implementing a cryptocurrency-based system requires a certain level of digital literacy and infrastructure.

 

Overall, the fusion of UBI with a service-oriented incentive has the potential to create a more engaged, community-driven society while ensuring that people have a basic level of financial security. It's an ambitious vision with its own set of challenges, but it's certainly worth exploring in depth.

 

Let’s consider government assistance programs like food stamps, EBT, and SNAP benefits. If there is a fusion between the benefits paid from the service work, complementing, the WIC, EBT, and other food stamps and government assistance programs? I think that one of the core philosophies, and belief systems in this form of universal basic income is that the expiration date on the service work earned, needs to be emphasized as a way to continue to grow the economy, support local people and businesses, and more

 

Merging a service-based UBI system with existing government assistance programs can provide a more holistic support system for individuals in need, and if executed properly, it can potentially be a boon for local economies. Let’s discuss how such a fusion might work and the implications:

1. Integration with Existing Programs:

• Interchangeable Credits: People could earn credits through service work, which could then be converted into benefits similar to WIC, EBT, SNAP, etc. This gives flexibility to recipients to decide how to use their credits.
• Top-Up Mechanism: Those who are eligible for government assistance programs could also do service work to "top-up" their existing benefits. (people who are busy are less likely to OD on fentanyl or other drugs that are ruinous to society)
• Special Incentives: To encourage more participation in service work, the government could offer special bonuses or rewards for those who consistently contribute to community tasks.

 

2. The Expiration Date Philosophy:

• Supporting Local Economy: By having an expiration date on the credits, you encourage recipients to spend them regularly. This would create consistent demand for local products and services. People who need food and other services can have it and people who don't necessarily have the need, can choose to spend it on things like art, music, and re-investing it in their local communities in other ways, or simply gift it: to charities, to people, etc.
• Encouraging Circulation: Money or credits that are spent rather than hoarded will circulate more rapidly in the economy, potentially boosting economic growth.
• Addressing Potential Hoarding: Some critics of UBI worry that recipients might hoard or misuse their benefits. An expiration date can serve as a disincentive to such behavior.

3. the intersection of rapid technological advancement and a push towards localized economies offers a unique landscape to reimagine welfare and economic systems. Introducing an expiration date philosophy to local consumption, especially in the context of advanced capitalism and AI, can have several implications:
4. Boosting Local Art and Craft:

• Promoting Local Artists: The inevitable march of AI and automation might lead to the redundancy of many conventional jobs. In such a scenario, creativity and art could be among the last bastions of purely human endeavors. An expiration system that encourages local consumption can be a way to support and promote artists, craftsmen, and performers in local communities.
• Cultural Preservation: Such a system could help in the preservation and continuation of local cultural heritages, traditions, and art forms, which might otherwise get overshadowed in a globalized market.

2. Strengthening Local Charities and Initiatives:

• Stable Funding: Local charities and NGOs can benefit from a consistent influx of funds or support, especially if people are incentivized to use their expiring credits on philanthropic endeavors.
• Engaging Communities: This setup would also enhance community participation. By supporting local charities, individuals would directly contribute to initiatives that impact their immediate surroundings.

3. Reinforcing Local Businesses:

• Stimulating Local Economies: Local businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, would see a significant boost in their revenue if there's a consistent and guaranteed consumer base, encouraged by the expiration philosophy.
• Counteracting AI Job Displacement: As AI and automation potentially displace many traditional jobs, there'll be a need to foster industries resistant to such displacements. Local businesses, especially those rooted in art, craft, or other niche skills, might fit the bill.

4. Coexisting with Advanced Capitalism:

• Flexible Capitalism: This approach offers a way to reorient capitalist incentives. By ensuring money is spent within a set timeframe, you're directing the flow of capital in specific, community-oriented directions while still allowing for competitive business practices within that framework.
• Balancing Automation Benefits: While automation and AI will generate vast amounts of wealth, there's a risk of significant income disparity. This sort of system could act as a buffer, ensuring that the benefits of automation are, at least in part, shared more broadly within communities.
• Encouraging Sustainable Business Practices: Local businesses, more often than not, have a direct stake in the well-being of their communities. By strengthening their position in the economy, there could be an indirect push towards more sustainable and community-friendly business practices.

Incorporating an expiration date philosophy to drive local consumption in an era dominated by AI and advanced capitalism is a forward-thinking approach. It recognizes the challenges posed by rapid technological advancement but offers a framework that can potentially harness these changes for community growth and cultural preservation. It's a symbiotic vision that combines modern economic mechanisms with a keen sense of local and cultural identity.

 

3. Potential Challenges and Benefits:

• Economic Stimulation: With a consistent flow of spending due to the expiration date, local businesses can anticipate steady demand, potentially leading to job creation and stability.
• Community Engagement: Tying benefits to service work fosters a sense of community. It reduces the stigma associated with receiving "handouts" since individuals are actively contributing to society.
• Inflation Concerns: One potential concern is whether the constant flow of spending might cause prices to rise, diminishing the value of the credits. Monitoring and adjustments would be necessary.
• Administration & Monitoring: Implementing such a hybrid system would require substantial administrative oversight to ensure fairness, prevent exploitation, and maintain the value and relevance of the service tasks.

 

In essence, merging the concept of service-based UBI with traditional government assistance programs and introducing an expiration date on the earned credits can indeed serve as a novel approach to welfare and economic stimulation. It's an innovative idea that marries social responsibility with economic incentives. The challenge lies in the execution, oversight, and balancing the system to ensure it remains sustainable and beneficial for all.

Given the multidimensional approach of this concept — encompassing technological advancement, localized economies, service-based UBI, and an expiration-driven monetary philosophy — a fitting dissertation title could be:

 

"Reimagining Welfare in an Age of AI: The Intersection of Service-Based Universal Basic Income, Expiry-Driven Economics, and Localized Capitalism"

 

There are concerns we have to address, though.

 

AI & Jobs: "In an era where AI might soon render half of our jobs obsolete, our very understanding of 'earning a living' stands on the precipice of redefinition. Imagine a world where community service isn't just altruism, but an actual currency, where spending isn't just an economic act, but a ticking mandate to bolster local art, business, and charity."

 

AI & Currency: "What if the currency in your wallet expired like the milk in your fridge? In a future dominated by AI, could the true value of money not just be in its amount, but in its temporality, steering us to engage more with our local communities?"

 

Both approaches underline the innovative nature of the proposal and sets the stage for a deep dive into the multifaceted approach of service-based UBI in an AI-driven future.

 

Given this additional perspective, "Cultural Preservation: Such a system could help in the preservation and continuation of local cultural heritages, traditions, and art forms, which might otherwise get overshadowed in a globalized market" I want to add that this is an important catalyst for this work, while we don't want to control the spending and we know that this currency could be spent at massive organizations as well, but hopefully, given human altruism, it would also be spent locally since there would be such a surplus. The emphasis on cultural preservation and the inherent trust in human altruism can be framed as follows:

 

"Cultural Preservation and Intrinsic Altruism: At the core of this proposal lies a profound belief in human goodness and the innate desire to uplift one's community. While the system doesn't seek to control spending or curtail engagement with larger organizations, it acts as a gentle nudge, encouraging beneficiaries to acknowledge the irreplaceable value of local cultural heritages, traditions, and art forms. In an age of globalization, where local cultures risk fading into obscurity, this model hopes to tap into an inherent altruism. With an increased surplus of currency in the system, the hope is that individuals, recognizing the richness and uniqueness of their own communities, would naturally gravitate towards bolstering and celebrating them."

 

By framing it this way, the dissertation underscores the importance of cultural preservation as an essential goal, while also highlighting the trust placed in humanity's innate desire to do good for their communities.

 

What about when people spend the money at a large, multi-national corporation?

 

Incorporating a mandatory dividend payout for corporations, inspired by the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) model, adds another layer of redistribution and fairness to the system. By doing this, even when the system's credits are spent at large corporations, there's a mechanism ensuring a portion of those profits flow back to individuals.

 

"**Redistribution through “Corporate Dividends”:** Drawing inspiration from the structure of REITs, one can imagine a scenario where corporations that benefit from this system's surplus are mandated to redistribute a significant portion of these earnings back to the populace in the form of “dividends.” Since not everyone can be a shareholder in the multinational and large cap companies, these dividends would have to be accrued in some form of general fund, i.e. This ensures a cyclical flow of wealth, where even as larger entities accrue benefits from the currency, they also play an active role in wealth dispersion. In effect, it balances out the scales, ensuring that while local economies thrive, the larger corporations aren't just beneficiaries but also contributors to the well-being of society."

 

This provision not only makes the model more equitable but also ensures a wider acceptance, as it alleviates concerns of the system overly benefiting massive corporations at the expense of local entities. It essentially adds a feedback loop, ensuring wealth, even when it moves up, finds a way back to the grassroots.

 

In an ever globalized world, there is a need for this, "Engaging Communities: This setup would also enhance community participation. By supporting local charities, individuals would directly contribute to initiatives that impact their immediate surroundings." and the communities can be optimized with the help of AI, reducing fuel costs across the nation, imagine an AI helping each person in their community tend to and manage their very own produce garden

 

The convergence of localized economies and advanced technology offers the potential to create smarter, more self-sustaining communities. The focus on community participation, aided by AI, could revolutionize not just local economies, but also drastically reduce environmental footprints. Here's how this idea might be articulated:

 

"**AI-Optimized Community Symbiosis:** In an age of unprecedented globalization, there's a burgeoning counter-movement emphasizing the need to root oneself in the immediate community. As our world expands outward, there's immense value in looking inward, tending to our local environments, and leveraging technology not just for global solutions, but for hyper-local ones as well. Imagine a future where every individual is guided by AI to cultivate their produce gardens, tailored specifically to local soil, weather, and consumption needs. Such a scenario would not only encourage self-sufficiency but also drastically cut down on transportation and associated fuel costs, as communities would rely less on imported goods. 

 

Moreover, this marriage of technology and localism would foster deeper community ties. People would not only be producers or consumers; they'd be caretakers of their environment, directly impacting and being impacted by their immediate surroundings. The ripple effect of such engagement would extend beyond just economic benefits. Healthier, fresher produce would promote better health. Reduced transportation would mean lower emissions and cleaner air. And the shared objective of nurturing a community garden would cultivate a sense of collective responsibility and camaraderie.

 

By harnessing AI to optimize local engagement and production, we'd be crafting a future where technology doesn't alienate or isolate but roots us deeper into our communities, turning globalization on its head to emphasize the local without sacrificing the advantages of technological advancement."

 

This perspective embraces the duality of future-forward technology and community-driven localism, proposing a future where both can coexist and complement each other for the greater good.

 

Let’s explore this concept further: “"Counteracting AI Job Displacement: As AI and automation potentially displace many traditional jobs, there'll be a need to foster industries resistant to such displacements. Local businesses, especially those rooted in art, craft, or other niche skills, might fit the bill." how can we demonstrate that this is a good thing, in previous revolutions people lost their jobs, but humans adapted. humans will lose their jobs again, but this time we can create a system where good deeds, like community service works, service to one another, and more thrives. New jobs will be created because of this. Jobs that desperately need to be created, like more generous and nice people at service kiosks, and travel stations all over.”

 

Historical context is a powerful tool when discussing the evolution of job markets and human adaptation. Every major technological and industrial revolution has been met with apprehension due to potential job losses. Yet, time and again, humans have not only adapted but also innovated, creating entirely new sectors and opportunities that were previously inconceivable.

 

Here's a potential way to articulate this sentiment:

 

"**Human Adaptability and the Evolution of Labor:** Looking back through the annals of history, from the agrarian to the industrial revolution, and now to the technological age, one recurring theme emerges: human adaptability. Each significant shift was met with fears of obsolescence. The looms were thought to end craftsmanship, factories were seen as the death knell for artisanal work, and computers were presumed to be the end of manual record-keeping. And while each shift did displace certain professions, what emerged in their wake were opportunities previously unimagined.

 

In the wake of AI and automation, we stand on the brink of yet another transformative shift. Traditional roles may wane, but in their stead, we have the opportunity to craft a society that values and compensates acts of service, compassion, and community-building. With automation taking care of repetitive tasks, humanity can refocus on roles that emphasize empathy, creativity, and interpersonal connection. 

 

Imagine a world where 'service' is not limited to one's professional capacity but extends to societal contribution. A world where the value isn't placed merely on what one can produce or sell, but on how one can uplift, assist, and connect. Airports, bus stations, and public squares bustling not just with information kiosks, but with individuals whose roles are to assist, guide, comfort, and engage.

 

In essence, as AI and automation shoulder more of the technical load, humanity can redirect its energies toward more 'human' pursuits. Just as past revolutions gave birth to novel professions, the AI revolution can usher in an era where roles centered around empathy, community, and service become paramount. Jobs that don't merely serve an economic function but also fill a societal and emotional need."

 

Such a perspective paints a hopeful picture of the future, where technological advancements don't diminish human roles but elevate them, emphasizing qualities that are innately human and can't be replicated by machines.

 

Don't forget that with the advent of AI, people who were previously unable to center their thoughts and write novels, essays, artworks, and more would be possible. Now if someone can think it, they can utilize AI to make it a reality like never before.

 

Absolutely. The symbiotic relationship between AI and human creativity has the potential to democratize artistry, writing, and other forms of expression. Here's how you might incorporate this thought:

 

"**AI as the Catalyst for Unleashed Creativity:** The democratizing potential of AI reaches far beyond industries and job markets. At its core, AI can serve as an unparalleled conduit for human creativity. Historically, the barrier to entry for many artistic pursuits was the technical proficiency required — the meticulous hand of a painter, the refined language of a writer, the trained ear of a musician. But what if, with AI, those barriers start to crumble?

 

Imagine the stories that have remained untold because someone couldn't quite master the craft of writing, or the artworks that never saw the light of day because the creator lacked traditional training. With the advent of advanced AI systems, those same individuals can now give voice to their thoughts and ideas with greater ease. They could outline a concept or narrate a story, and AI could assist in refining the language, creating digital artwork, or composing music that complements their vision. 

 

This isn't to suggest AI replaces the artist but rather that it becomes a tool, an extension of the artist's intent, allowing for a broader range of people to express themselves. It's the dawn of an era where the line between imagination and manifestation blurs, and where ideas, regardless of one's technical proficiency, have the chance to flourish and resonate. 

 

In this brave new world, AI doesn't overshadow or diminish human creativity; it amplifies it, making artists out of all of us and ensuring that the vast tapestry of human experience and expression grows richer and more diverse."

 

Such a perspective emphasizes the enabling role of AI, presenting it not as a threat but as a tool that can empower a vast number of people to realize their creative potentials.